Economist who previously slammed Trump explains how the president could have ‘outsmarted us all’ with one specific move

As U.S. stock markets hit record highs on June 27, a leading economist admitted he may have misjudged President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at historic levels, reflecting unexpected economic strength.

Trump’s broad tariffs on global trade, including longtime partners like Canada, Mexico, and China, drew criticism early in his return to the presidency. The sweeping levies extended even to obscure, uninhabited islands, with countries retaliating facing even steeper tariffs.

China suffered the most, imposing counter-tariffs on U.S. goods and triggering U.S. taxes as high as 145% on Chinese imports. This sparked factory protests and temporary shutdowns in China, while the U.S. economy continued to strengthen.

Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk, was a vocal critic of the tariff strategy, warning in April that it could lead to recession and mass layoffs. However, after recent market surges, he has revised his stance.

In a June 21 blog post, Sløk suggested the Trump administration’s plan might be working. He proposed extending the tariff policy another year, giving nations time to adapt while reducing uncertainty and boosting planning and employment.

He noted this approach could bring $400 billion in annual tax revenue, calling it potentially a “win” for both the U.S. and its trade partners. Even 10% tariffs could seem acceptable globally, while U.S. income grows.

Trump remains confident his trade strategy will ultimately strengthen the U.S. economy by reducing foreign trade barriers and encouraging domestic production—even as consumers may first feel the cost of retaliatory tariffs.